Late Spring Weather Thread

Happy Passover, Max.

Fri April 3rd

Weekend weather probably warm and damp, with periods of sun and drizzle. Precise timing is uncertain, as there are multiple front passages. This is a "best try" forecast. The biggest unknown is temperature Sunday, as some models are as much as 10⁰ warmer for Sunday afternoon. 

Today, warm and drizzle this morning, perhaps some fog. Clearing expected this afternoon, high in the lower 70⁰s, breezy in the afternoon, tonight dry, low around 60⁰

Saturday should start out partly sunny, high mid 70⁰s, then cloudy in the afternoon, chance of showers afternoon and evening, low in the lower 50⁰s

Sunday very likely showers and breezy, high in the 70⁰s, could hit 80⁰ if the sun breaks through, then clearing and cooler, overnight lows around 40⁰

The beginning of next week likely mostly sunny and seasonal, with highs in the mid 50⁰s and lows in the upper 30⁰s

Happy Easter to those who celebrate

Monday April 6th

The week starts out mostly sunny, breezy, and seasonably cool. Then nearer the weekend should be warmer, and there is the potential for a taste of summer 

Today, more sun than cloud, quite breezy, high upper 50⁰s, overnight low around 40⁰

Tuesday, mostly clear, breezy, high around 50⁰, low around 30⁰

Wednesday, mild but chilly, high around 50⁰ overnight low mid 30s 

Thursday should have some clouds but mostly sunny, mid 50⁰s, low lower 40⁰s

Friday and the weekend from here look mostly clear, calm, and warm, with highs around 70⁰ and lows in the 50⁰s but there is a wIde range in the temperature profile.  The ocean is still quite cold so too much easterly breeze could drop the temps while a more southerly flow might bring warmer air

Wed April 8th

The rest of the week will be cool and clear, more sun than clouds, but the warm days are likely to be early next week, not the weekend

Today and tomorrow, more sun than clouds, highs in the 50⁰s and overnight lows in the 30⁰s

Friday and the weekend should be mostly sunny, highs seasonal in the 60⁰s, overnight lows in the 40⁰s

Beginning of next week likely sunny and unseasonably warm, highs in the 70⁰s or even the low 80⁰s

Mon, April 13th

A warm week ahead 

Today, clouds and sun, high near 80⁰, overnight low near 60⁰

Tuesday mostly sunny, high mid 80⁰s low mid 60⁰s, slight chance of showers overnight 

Wednesday starts sunny then chance of showers, high mid to upper 80⁰s, low mid 60s

Thursday mid 80⁰s, mid 60⁰s

Friday lower 80⁰s

Temps in the city this week might be a bit cooler than what's forecast here

Guess I gotta get my Gatorade for my hikes.

Here in Ocean County, we evidently had a real frost a day ago. (please excuse my unskilled attempts at commenting on weather) because a large planter of perennial hydrangeas, several years old, which had survived another winter, sprouting new growth, showing new buds, etc., and looking “healthy.” That all changed  yesterday (still very chilly here) I found my  hydrangea,  now all brown, with its buds shriveled.

If the plant has another spring rejuvenation — if the weather actually warms up —I will report back!

Wed April 15th

Still warm this week, cooler weekend, some showers possible

Today, sunny and warm once the fog clears, high upper 80⁰s (warmer if we don't get the sea breeze this afternoon), tonight chance of showers and even a possible rumble of thunder, low in the mid 60⁰s

Thursday pretty much the same as today

Friday could be a bit cooler, only reaching the high 70⁰s or 80⁰, especially if we get an afternoon shower, low in the upper 50⁰s

Weekend looks cooler, sun and clouds Saturday, showers likely Sunday. Highs upper 60⁰s, overnight lows 50⁰s

mtierney said:

Here in Ocean County, we evidently had a real frost a day ago. (please excuse my unskilled attempts at commenting on weather) because a large planter of perennial hydrangeas, several years old, which had survived another winter, sprouting new growth, showing new buds, etc., and looking “healthy.” That all changed  yesterday (still very chilly here) I found my  hydrangea,  now all brown, with its buds shriveled.

If the plant has another spring rejuvenation — if the weather actually warms up —I will report back!

yes, here too. it killed the bloom on my neighbor's magnolia

Sunday evening, April 19

Cold, and a few words about drought

Tonight there are still some showers in the area but nothing serious, though may get a bit breezy. Low in the upper 30s

Monday might have some lingering showers in the morning, then more sun and a high in the low 50s

Monday night clear skies and a bit of a breeze should drive temps into the low 30s. The NWS has issued a freeze warning for our area

Tuesday will continue unseasonably cold with sunny skies but a high only in the mid 50s. Clouds likely to gather Tuesday night, low mid 40s and a chance of a shower

Wednesday we could start to see a bit of a warming trend, partly sunny and high in the low 60s. Wednesday night clearing and a low in the mid 40s

Thursday lots of moving parts but could be a really nice day with a potential high near 70. Overnight low around 50

Friday could also be sunny and also hit 70

Then into the weekend, it's a bit of a crapshoot with a 50/50 chance of showers both days and likely seasonal temps in the 60s by day and mid 40s at night

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

If you follow the local gardening groups it should be no shock to hear that the entire state remains in drought or near drought conditions, with our specific area being in a D1 (moderate drought) status. This is unlikely to change, except possibly to get worse, over the next few weeks. Unfortunately that one big snowstorm did little to offset months of low rainfall, and since then things have continued to be relatively dry. In a few weeks we will be heading into fire season and it will become very important to be sensible and careful with outdoor fires, including fire pits and such, even in our back yards.

In other news, the NWS is looking for rainfall observers. It's an easy gig and it can be really cool to find your observations cited in NWS reports after storms. Details are here: https://www.cocorahs.org/Content.aspx?page=aboutus

If you join up with the observing corps, you get to see your data on cool maps like this

My data from this morning

Wed, April 22

Showers and cool temps with one glorious day thrown in. 

Today, the showers will be ending later this morning, but the clouds will remain around all day. High upper 50s, overnight low mid 40s

Thursday should be mostly sunny, high in the low 70s, mostly just a light breeze but there is a possibility of some modest gusting. Low near 50. The downside is a possibility of there being a fire risk with dry air and a breeze and our current drought conditions 

Friday mixed sun and clouds and back to cool temps with highs in the low 60s and lows near 50

The weekend is still a toss up as to whether the precipitation reaches us or stays to our north. Either way it will be cooler with temps in the 50s to low 60s and a 50/50 chance of showers, more likely on Saturday than Sunday

Monday evening April 27th

Cooler weather continues this week, with rain likely Wednesday evening and night.

Tonight, a few clouds and chilly, with lows near 50.

Tomorrow high upper 60s, more clouds, very slight chance of a light shower

Tomorrow night cloudy, low around 50

Wednesday, chance of showers in the afternoon and evening, light breeze, high low 60s

Wednesday night moderate rain likely, perhaps 1/2 to 1 inch, maybe a rumble of thunder, low around 50

Thursday, lingering showers possible in the morning, mostly cloudy, high near 60, overnight low mid 40s

Friday sunny, high near 60, low mid 40s

Weekend showing the possibility of rain but it is far from certain

Sunday May 3

The Week Ahead -- Mother Nature and the Three Bears. Too warm, too wet, too cold

Monday, sunny with a high in the lower 70s. Breezy. Overnight low around 60. The NWS might issue a fire watch for Monday, as warm, dry weather and gusty winds will dry out the brush and the conditions could be ripe for fire

Tuesday, some clouds and unseasonably warm, with a high in the lower 80s likely. Slight chance of thundershowers. Overnight low near 60

Wednesday, showers likely, all day and most of the night. High near 70 and overnight low near 50

Thursday showers still likely, high near 60 low lower 40s

Friday and the weekend might have showers and are likely to be a bit colder than normal with highs in the low 60s

Despite the recent rain, the whole state is and is likely to remain in a moderate drought condition and care should be taken with outdoor activities involving fire

 Mothers Day is a washout then?

dano said:

 Mothers Day is a washout then?

Sunday is looking ok now. Saturday, well, we need the rain....

Thursday, May 7th

Showers and sun

Today, the showers have ended for the time being, expect a bit of sun to peek through the clouds today, high upper 60s

Tonight, slight chance of showers, low near 50

Friday, sunny, high mid 60s, overnight low near 50, slight chance of showers near dawn

Saturday showers, mid 60s, low around 50 and clearing overnight

Mother's Day (no excuse now, I reminded you), more sun than clouds, high near 80, then overnight showers

Next week ought to continue with alternating days of sun and showers

Here in Ocean County, I still wear a sweater outdoors due to the cool wind that even accompanies the days when the sun shines brightly. My pots of perennials are showing signs of life, but at this point in time they are pretty puny for May.

Sunday May 10th

The week to come, another mix of showers and sun

Tonight, the showers are pretty much over. Some clearing, low around 50

Tomorrow (Monday), mixed sun and clouds, high mid 60s. Overnight more clouds, low mid 40s

Tuesday could be the nicest day of the week, with ample sun likely and highs in the upper 60s (might even hit 70)

...and the rest of the week is a crap shoot, with mostly cloudy days with highs in the upper 60s, showers likely, some periods of cloudy and dry, overnight lows in the lower 50s

From here the weekend is looking better, with a distinct possibility of sunny and warm. Fingers crossed! 🤞

Wed May 13th

Rainy Thursday then warm and sunny

Today, light showers give way to clouds and wind. High 75⁰. Wind 15 - 20mph with gusts 30 - 45mph

Tonight, showers return, low mid 50⁰s

Thursday, showers likely, mostly moderate but a chance of thunder all day. High mid 60⁰s. Overnight, chance showers continues low around 50⁰

Friday slight chance showers, breezy, high upper 60⁰s low mid 50⁰s

Then clear and warming for the weekend, with highs Saturday near 80⁰, and Sunday in the upper 80⁰s. Clear and unseasonably warm weather likely continues into early next week

One note, the NWS wants to remind you that water temperatures are still in the 50⁰s so be careful boating or at the beach this weekend